When Shift Happens2 min read
Raoul Pal defends his 70% SUI bet, says only 3 to 5 layer-1s will win
Pal explains why followers who copied his SUI trade got burned, and why he still expects deep drawdowns before any payoff.
AI summary of “Raoul Pal: Brutally Honest Advice About Crypto Investing (that nobody wants to hear)”
Key takeaways
- Raoul Pal says he was over 70% weighted in SUI but won't share position sizes with followers anymore.
- He argues copy-trading without understanding the thesis fails because income and risk tolerance differ.
- Pal expects drawdowns of 35% in Bitcoin and up to 70% further down the risk curve, even in a bull market.
- He says he believes only three to five layer-1 networks will capture 80% of block space demand, with SUI among the top three.
Tokens mentioned
The speakers' views, not ours
Over 70% weighted, believes it can be among top three layer-1 winners long term
“I I really don't. ... what other layer one has got any sort of form of adoption”
Cites its 80% 2020 drawdown followed by huge gains as proof volatility doesn't break thesis
“Solana in 2020 was down 80% in the middle of the bull run”
Fell sharply mid-bull-run yet still rallied later, used as precedent
“Ethereum did it in 2017. In the middle of the bull run”
Expects 35% pullbacks even in a bull market, timing unknown
“expect 35% pullbacks in Bitcoin alone”
Pal says followers copied his SUI trade without doing the work
Raoul Pal discusses the backlash after people bought SUI following his earlier comment that he was "massively overweight" the token at more than 70%. He says having the position was his own informed choice, based on his income, risk tolerance and experience, but that followers copied the trade "without having done the work." He says he has now learned he "can't even tell people percentage" because people want to simplify everything by copying the trade, the entry time and the size, which he says does not work the same way for everyone.
"I feel responsible... you need to be adding into the weakness if you want to stay in the trade."— Raoul Pal
He acknowledges feeling responsible for people who entered later and are now down, advising that entry price should not matter over time if investors keep adding on weakness, comparing it to his own experience doing the same with Bitcoin.
Pal still holds SUI, expects deep drawdowns, and bets on 3 to 5 winning layer-1s
Asked whether the 70% position sizing was wrong, Pal says he remains "comfortable in the position," declining to discuss current sizing. He says he believes three to five layer-1 networks will become "systemically important" and capture 80% of the market for block space, and that he does not see another network besides SUI able to break into the top three alongside Solana and Ethereum. He mentions Near, Hyperledger and Avalanche as serving different purposes rather than direct competitors.
"Expect 35% pullbacks in Bitcoin alone... once you go down the risk curve, you're at 70%."— Raoul Pal
He points to Solana falling 80% in 2020 and Ethereum falling mid-bull-run, both later rising sharply, as evidence that large drawdowns can occur without invalidating a longer-term thesis, while stressing the timing of such drops is unknowable.
Written by AI from the video's transcript. It can compress, misattribute or miss context — the original video is the source. Not investment advice.
