🏀 Knicks Rally, SpaceX IPO, & Hyperliquid's $200M Revenue Surge — Market Memo

📊 Market Overview: Sideways Action Ahead of SpaceX Launch

Markets remained range-bound Thursday, with Bitcoin up approximately 1% and Ethereum oscillating near breakeven. Both assets continue to hang on by a thread, with traders cautiously eyeing tomorrow's SpaceX IPO—expected to raise capital levels comparable to Google's recent $80 billion equity offering.

According to market commentary, liquidity is being pulled in anticipation of the IPO, creating a near-term headwind for risk assets. However, some participants believe a post-IPO rebound is possible if capital rotates back into crypto after the event. The concern? If SpaceX is followed by Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs later this year, the cumulative supply of $3–5 trillion in new equity could weigh heavily on digital assets.

"SpaceX could do well. The market is selling into this event and might rebound coming out of it. But once you get into the second and third [IPO], going into three, four, five trillion dollars of new supply... that's when this thing is just going to get too overweight."

Polymarket odds favor SpaceX trading above $2 trillion on day one, well above its $1.77 trillion IPO price.

🏀 Knicks Pull Off Historic NBA Finals Comeback

In a stunning display of resilience, the New York Knicks delivered the largest comeback in NBA Finals history, erasing a 27-point halftime deficit to win the game. The team trailed by as many as 29 points before mounting an improbable second-half rally.

Key moments included a clutch tip from OG Anobi and a critical defensive fingertip deflection by Karl-Anthony Towns that altered a would-be game-winning basket in the final seconds. The bar atmosphere—silent at halftime—exploded into celebration as the Knicks closed the gap and ultimately secured the victory.

"The place just turned into a champagne factory. I got so much White Claw and beer in my eye."

Fans flooded the streets near Madison Square Garden, climbing light poles and chanting "Knicks in 5, 6, 7—whatever it takes." The city's energy was electric following one of the most dramatic Finals performances in modern basketball.

🤖 AI, Agents & the Labor Market — Alex Karp's Warning

Palantir CEO Alex Karp stirred debate with comments suggesting AI's economic impact may disproportionately affect certain demographics. Karp noted that despite women earning the majority of graduate degrees, men currently generate a disproportionate share of GDP. He argued that AI will accelerate disruption in white-collar sectors, while vocational and hands-on trades may prove more resilient to automation.

"37% of our GDP is female. 50% of Americans—roughly 52%—are female. There's a dislocation there. 67% of people who have gone into graduate school are female. These parts of the market are going to be put under massive pressure."

The thesis: formal education no longer guarantees economic security in an AI-driven economy. Instead, skills that cannot be easily automated—such as welding, construction, and other manual trades—may command increasing value.

One counterpoint raised: AI may also enhance freedom by reducing the need to perform undesirable tasks, while simultaneously boosting productivity across the board. The conversation underscored a broader tension in the industry: as AI reshapes labor markets, wealth distribution, and political power, the question of who benefits remains unresolved.

⚖️ Regulatory Landscape: Midterms & the Push for Clarity

With midterm elections in November, the crypto industry is racing to pass the Clarity Act before potential shifts in congressional power. Market observers estimate an 80% probability that Democrats retake the House of Representatives, which could introduce fresh regulatory uncertainty.

However, the SEC and CFTC—both appointed bodies—are expected to maintain their pro-innovation stances regardless of election outcomes. This provides some continuity for builders and institutions navigating the evolving regulatory framework.

"Regulators now are extremely pro-innovation, pro-blockchain. They really want to see this evolution happen. However... we have a situation where most people are expecting the House to flip to the Democrats in the fall."

The concern: if the House gains subpoena power, it could slow down legislative momentum through lawfare and political theatrics, diverting attention from productive policymaking.

💰 Hyperliquid Strategies Update: $150M Hype Purchase & $199M Cash on Hand

Hyperliquid Strategies announced a massive treasury operation this week, adding 2.5 million HYPE tokens and bringing total holdings to 26.2 million HYPE—approximately 10% of circulating supply. The firm issued 22 million new shares via its equity line of credit (ELOC), raising $199 million in cash while deploying $150 million into HYPE purchases.

Key Metrics:

• Average HYPE cost basis: Approximately $31 (up from earlier entries in the $20s)
• Market cap to NAV (MNAV): 1.11x (1.02x when adjusted for deferred tax liabilities)
• Cash on balance sheet: Close to $200 million
• Shares outstanding: 210 million

CEO David Sheamus emphasized the firm's disciplined approach to treasury management, noting they will not hit the ATM when the MNAV compresses. Instead, the strategy is to wait for favorable conditions and continue accumulating HYPE as a long-term holder.

"We're not religious zealots. We're corporate finance geeks. Our job is to create as much shareholder value as possible. If the circumstance came where we needed to sell tokens to do that, we would do that."

Despite the recent selloff in HYPE, Sheamus remained bullish on the long-term thesis, citing strong fundamentals and growing institutional interest.

🚀 Hyperliquid Pre-IPO Market: SpaceX, Anthropic & Price Discovery

Hyperliquid's perpetual futures market for pre-IPO equities has become a focal point for institutional observers. With $165 million in open interest on SpaceX contracts, the platform is demonstrating its ability to provide price discovery ahead of traditional equity markets.

SpaceX is currently trading around $168 on Hyperliquid, well above its IPO price of $135. Market participants expect the stock to open near the Hyperliquid price, validating the platform's role as a leading indicator for institutional capital.

"I'm pretty sure it's going to open pretty close to where it's trading on Hyperliquid right now. I have a fair amount of confidence in that." — David Sheamus

The precedent was set with Cerebrus, which priced 35% below its Hyperliquid trading level and immediately rallied to match on-chain pricing. If SpaceX follows a similar trajectory, it will further cement Hyperliquid's reputation as the pre-IPO price discovery mechanism.

ICE Chairman Jeffrey Sprecher (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) recently said Hyperliquid is "bigger than NASDAQ" and suggested these markets could eventually exceed IPO volumes themselves. The implication: derivatives could become the canonical price, reducing the influence of traditional investment banks in the IPO pricing process.

📈 Hyperliquid Revenue Surge: $175–200M Annually from USDC Deal

In a significant development, Hyperliquid secured a 90/10 revenue split with Circle and Coinbase on the $6 billion in USDC held on its platform. At current interest rates (approximately 3.25%), this translates to $175–200 million annually in buyback revenue flowing to the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund.

This deal was the result of a months-long negotiation in which Hyperliquid threatened to launch its own stablecoin, USDH, to pressure Circle into a revenue-sharing agreement. The tactic worked: Circle and Coinbase relented, preserving their dominance while ceding a meaningful portion of yield to Hyperliquid.

"It's a really amazing example of when you have power to move pricing, how it really works. Hyperliquid said, 'We should be getting a cut.' They said no. So Hyperliquid did USDH... and somehow just doing that got the 90/10 deal." — David Sheamus

This revenue plateau was not part of the original Hyperliquid thesis, making it a major positive catalyst for long-term holders. Interestingly, the market took approximately 24 hours to fully price in the announcement—a sign that crypto markets, while maturing, still exhibit inefficiencies relative to traditional equity markets.

🌐 Monad Update: Mainnet Launch, Privacy Features & Universal Asset Layer Vision

Keone (Co-Founder of Monad) provided an update on the project's progress, emphasizing its mission to build a high-performance, decentralized EVM that serves as the foundation for universal market access.

Key Highlights:

• Mainnet launched in November after over four years of development
• Privacy and MEV resistance are top priorities for upcoming releases
• Vault products have attracted significant capital, with multiple vaults live on the platform
• Purple, a fully decentralized perpetuals exchange, is currently in private mainnet and will open publicly soon

Keone emphasized that Monad is not verticalizing like some competitors. Instead, the project aims to remain credibly neutral, allowing builders to compete on merit rather than facing direct competition from the protocol itself.

"What Monad is doing is delivering a really decentralized, really trustworthy, and really credibly neutral environment where any builder can be successful. That means not competing against the builders... not king-making one stablecoin."

On the question of agents and AI, Keone was optimistic. He views AI as a force multiplier for productivity, enabling developers and non-developers alike to build more efficiently. Monad has integrated an AI agent into Slack that can index blockchain data, open pull requests, and construct dashboards—accelerating the team's output without replacing human contributors.

📊 Tokenized Equities & RWAs: 3Jane Launches USD3 Credit-Backed Stablecoin

3Jane, a Paradigm-backed project, publicly launched USD3—a credit-backed yield coin designed to generate returns from warehouse facilities and credit lines rather than traditional crypto collateral. Initial issuance is capped at $50 million, with users earning JANE tokens alongside yield from protocols like Pendle.

The product represents a continued push toward off-chain yield sources as DeFi matures. By tapping into real-world credit infrastructure, 3Jane aims to expand on-chain lending beyond over-collateralized models.

"This gives me Maple Finance vibes, slight Sky vibes. We're using on-chain mechanisms to generate capital, then putting it into high-quality assets like warehouse facilities and credit lines."

The thesis: on-chain capital + off-chain yield = sustainable DeFi expansion. As the industry moves beyond speculative trading, products like USD3 may define the next phase of DeFi growth.

🌏 Asia's AI Earnings Surge: Outpacing US Valuations

A notable shift is occurring in global equity markets: South Korea delivered the strongest 2026 returns among major markets, driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion. This contrasts sharply with US equities, which have relied heavily on multiple expansion (higher P/E ratios) rather than fundamental revenue growth.

The implication: AI is no longer just an American phenomenon. Asian markets—particularly South Korea—are capturing significant AI-driven earnings, suggesting a more globally distributed AI economy than many anticipated.

"American equities relied heavily on valuation rerating, with forward P/E multiples moving above historical averages. The AI trade is no longer just an American phenomenon—it is a global capital movement, specifically in Asia."

This divergence raises questions about where future growth will come from and whether US tech valuations can sustain their current levels without corresponding earnings acceleration.

🔮 Final Thoughts: Reflexivity, Supply Dynamics & the Road Ahead

The conversation around treasury strategies, supply compression, and reflexive assets continues to dominate crypto discourse. Hyperliquid Strategies, Bitwise's ETHW, and other DATs (Decentralized Autonomous Treasuries) are all executing variations of the same playbook: issue equity at a premium, buy back the underlying asset, compress supply, amplify upside volatility.

The thesis hinges on one critical assumption: macro conditions must improve. If liquidity returns to crypto markets and a rising tide lifts all boats, assets with supply off the market will experience outsized gains. If liquidity dries up further—due to AI IPO supply shocks, geopolitical instability, or persistent inflation—even the best treasury strategies may struggle to generate alpha.

"The idea is that they're not going to get margin called. They have the patience and longevity for the macro cyclical nature to return positively with supply off the market. You would expect great things to happen."

For now, the market remains in a state of cautious optimism—waiting for catalysts, watching SpaceX, and betting on fundamentals to eventually prevail over macro headwinds.

Bottom Line: The next 48 hours will be pivotal. SpaceX launches tomorrow. Hype volatility is elevated. Knicks are one win away from glory. And the crypto industry is navigating one of its most complex crossroads yet—balancing innovation, regulation, and market survival.

Stay sharp. Stay liquid. And as always—heat, heat, heat. 🔥