🎯 Target Hit: Rate-Day Volatility, Five Trades, and a Late-Day Break

Market Setup: Macro Catalysts Framed the Day

• High-impact events: PPI at 8:30 and an interest rate decision at 9:45 set the tone, with a plan to stand down until the decision cleared. “I literally don't want to place any trades until I see what happens with this.”
• Equities tone: The S&P 500 gapped down into the open as markets marked time into the rate decision.
• Crypto bias: Daily desk bias flagged bearish after taking previous day’s high and closing lower, with eyes on previous day’s low.

“This is the reality of trading, right? Not everything is going to be flashy fun.”

Playbook & Tools ⚙️

• Framework: Trade with higher-timeframe trend and structure using moving averages (including the 200-day) and New York session context.
• Entry model: Seek pullbacks into confluence zones (fair value gaps, order blocks, change of character), layer entries, and manage aggressively.
• Risk/Reward: “Effectively, we’re risking 1R to be able to make positive 3.8R.” Occasional extensions to 1:7 when structure allows; baseline first target at 1:4.
• Journaling: Trades logged with instrument, strategy, timeframe, direction, risk %, P&L, fees, and win rate to drive iterative improvement.
• Instruments: Focus on crypto majors (Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum). Noted Solana resistance in the 92–94 area and a 7 a.m. high on Bitcoin for intraday mapping.

Opening Sequence: Patience Into the Decision

• Pre-decision stance: No trades until 9:45 to avoid whipsaw.
• Immediate read: Bitcoin failed a key break, rejected, and sat under resistance. Bias held bearish unless a 200-day support bounce materialized.
• Solana structure: Held better than Bitcoin with unbroken support; a retest into 92–94 was on watch.

Trade Log: Five Trades, Two Misses, Three Wins

Trade 1 — Short on structure break

• Setup: Break below a macro level and retest of a fair value gap supported a short.
• Outcome: Direction right, position size wrong. “Only up 5.88” initially; later closed for “like 300.” Noted the move could have been a “5k trade.”

Trade 2 — Missed entry, would’ve hit target

• Setup: Reversion to a defined level for a bearish continuation.
• Outcome: Missed by a tick, then ran straight to target. No fill, no P&L.

Trade 3 — Intraday long on structural flip

• Setup: Failure to break lows, flip of a bearish fair value gap to the upside, targeting a heavy response level.
• Outcome: Took profit at a key level: locked in 77.89 after fees and slippage, roughly a 1:4. Journal updated: “now we are net up 54 on the day.”

Trade 4 — Long into higher-timeframe fair value gap

• Setup: HTF fair value gap response, change of character, targeting continuation higher.
• Outcome: Full stop after slippage: lost 2566. Running tally noted at 2862 at one point earlier in the session.

Trade 5 — Late-session short, patience rewarded

• Setup: Change of character below a neckline after ascending lows, entry at a bearish fair value gap with an unmitigated 15‑minute gap as target. Partial management as price progressed.
• Risk management: Partial profits booked, 4K locked in mid-trade; stop to break-even on remainder.
• Outcome: Grind lower across hours; near miss at midpoint, then a late flush sealed it. Closed the day over the five-figure goal by about 1K.

Execution Highlights 📈

• Volatility discipline: No trades ahead of the 9:45 rate decision; embraced post-event momentum instead.
• Structure-first reads: Consistent use of fair value gaps, order blocks, and change of character to time entries and reversals.
• Risk controls: Frequent move to break-even once structure confirmed; partials at pre-mapped liquidity.
• Slippage & sizing: Early mistake on size capped upside; later slippage expanded a loss “closer to three risk factors.”
• Patience with liquidity cycles: Awareness that counter-trend setups often need fresh participation. “Usually, that happens around Asia open.”

Performance Summary

• Total trades: 5
• Win rate: 60% (two losses, three wins)
• Day result: “Up over our daily goal by about 1K.”

Key Takeaways 🔍

• Let macro catalysts clear: PPI and rate decisions can distort price discovery; waiting protected early risk budget.
• Bias with flexibility: A bearish daily bias framed the session, yet longs were taken where structure flipped and HTF confluence aligned.
• Asymmetric setups: Targeting 1:4 to 1:7 skew with 3.8R baseline expectancy allowed losses to be contained while winners carried the day.
• Process over outcome: Missed fills, size errors, and slippage happen; journaling and strict criteria created the conditions for the late-session winner.

“We’re never going to be able to guess everything 100%. It’s about putting yourself in those positions where if you’re right, you make a lot more and if you’re wrong, you lose a lot less.”