Mario

Pixel Mario Coin Price Today & AI Analysis

MarioSolanaAnalysis as of May 17, 2026

Price

$0.053712

Contract

Live
cexLpyPDpR8bPd7rj4YpJuUEujCgiF5ui83ieTbpump

Chain

Solana

Holders

184

Market cap

$3,712

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Pixel Mario Coin: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-05-17 22:20 UTC

Holder addresses

326

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$38,247.24
How concentrated is Pixel Mario Coin ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 326 addresses (2026-05-17 22:20 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling Pixel Mario Coin?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Pixel Mario Coin liquidity falling?
As of 2026-05-17 22:20 UTC, reported liquidity was $38,247.24. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-05-17 22:20 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

Report snapshot

as of May 17, 10:20 PM UTC

FDV

$238,160

Liquidity

$38,247.24

Holders

326

Snipers

Not available

Risk

Very High
Loading price chart…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Bearish

Pixel Mario Coin (Mario) is a meme/novelty token on Solana launched via PumpSwap with a total supply of ~1B tokens and a current FDV of ~$238K. The token has experienced a dramatic 176.9% price surge in the past 24 hours, rising from near-zero to $0.000238. However, this spike is accompanied by severe sell pressure (74.7% of 24h volume is sells), shallow liquidity ($38.25K), extreme holder concentration, and a very young holder base that grew 85% in just 7 days from a base of only 48 holders. The token exhibits classic pump-and-dump risk characteristics and is suitable only for highly risk-tolerant speculators.

Key points

  • 176.9% 24h price surge on PumpSwap with only $38.25K total liquidity
  • Holder base grew from 48 (stagnant for weeks) to 326 in ~7 days — entirely recent activity
  • Top 10 holders control 36.9% of supply; top 100 control 96.05%
  • 74.7% of 24h volume is sell-side — dominant distribution pressure
  • 20 snipers identified in first 1000 blocks, majority in profit and actively selling

AI Price Analysis

bearish

Short term · 1–24 hours

bearish

The token is showing extreme sell pressure (74.7% sell volume) with only $38.25K in liquidity. The 5-minute price change is already -1.84%, and the OHLC candles show highly erratic oscillation between ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000259. With snipers actively taking profits and dominant sell-side flow, a near-term retracement is the most probable outcome. The current price of $0.000238 is near the upper range of recent candles.

Target low

$0.000037

Target high

$0.000260

Support

$0.000089 (candle 9 low), $0.000037 (recurring low across multiple candles)

Resistance

$0.000184 (candle 9 high), $0.000259 (candle 4 high — recent peak)

Medium term · 7–30 days

bearish

Without a verified contract, meaningful utility, or sustained buying pressure, the token is unlikely to maintain its current price level. The holder base is extremely young (grew from 48 to 326 in ~7 days), and the 96.05% top-100 concentration leaves little room for organic price discovery. A return toward pre-pump levels (~$0.000037–$0.000090) is the base expectation unless a new catalyst emerges.

Catalysts

  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally
  • Viral social media attention on Mario/gaming theme
  • New exchange listing or partnership announcement
  • Sustained buy-side volume exceeding current sell pressure

Bullish factors

  • 176.9% 24h price surge demonstrates strong speculative momentum
  • Holder count grew 85% in 7 days, showing rapid community formation
  • 1-hour price change of +19.6% suggests short-term buying interest
  • Gaming/Mario theme has broad cultural appeal for meme coin narratives
  • Token is not flagged as spam

Bearish factors

  • 74.7% of 24h volume is sell-side — heavy distribution
  • Only $38.25K total liquidity — extreme slippage risk for any meaningful position
  • Top 100 holders control 96.05% of supply — extreme concentration
  • Holder base was completely stagnant (48 holders) for ~30 days before sudden spike
  • Unverified contract, unknown update authority, mutable metadata status unclear
  • 20 snipers active in first 1000 blocks, most in profit and selling
  • OHLC candles show no stable price discovery — oscillating between $0.000037 and $0.000259

Confidence: low. Confidence is low due to the extreme volatility (176.9% 24h move), very shallow liquidity ($38.25K), erratic OHLC patterns with no clear trend structure, missing sniper cost-basis data, and the token's very short active trading history. Price prediction for micro-cap meme tokens with these characteristics is inherently unreliable.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
cexLpy...pump
Total Supply
999,998,682.271032

Key Risks

  • Extreme sell pressure: 74.7% of 24h volume is sells, with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers
  • Shallow liquidity ($38.25K) creates high slippage and exit risk for any meaningful position
  • 96.05% supply concentration in top 100 holders — retail has minimal float
  • Token was dormant for 30+ days before sudden pump — classic pump-and-dump setup

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

The 10 most recent hourly candles (May 17, 2026, 13:00–22:00 UTC) reveal a highly erratic price structure with no clear directional trend. Open and close values oscillate between two recurring price levels: ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000103, suggesting the market is ping-ponging between a lower support zone and a mid-range level. Candle highs range from $0.000089 (candle 9) to $0.000259 (candle 4), indicating periodic spike attempts that fail to hold. Volume is declining from a peak of ~$45.8K (candle 10) to just $144 (candle 1), signaling rapidly fading interest. The most recent candle (candle 1) shows a very low volume of $144.71, which is a dramatic drop from prior candles — a potential exhaustion signal.

Trend

Short-term

Sideways

Medium-term

Sideways

No sustained uptrend or downtrend is established. Price oscillates between ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000103 on closes, with intraday spikes to $0.000259. The lack of higher highs on closes and the declining volume suggest the initial pump momentum is fading. The medium-term trend is also sideways-to-bearish given the stagnant 30-day holder history prior to the recent spike.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

25%

Sell

75%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.000103 (recurring close/open level across multiple candles)

Major support

$0.000037 (recurring low — appears as floor across candles 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10)

Immediate resistance

$0.000184 (candle 9 high)

Major resistance

$0.000259 (candle 4 high — highest recent intraday spike)

The $0.000037 level acts as a strong recurring floor, appearing as the low or open/close in at least 6 of 10 candles. The $0.000103 level is a mid-range pivot. The $0.000259 level represents the recent peak and is the key resistance to watch. A break below $0.000037 would signal capitulation.

Notable patterns

  • Oscillating open/close between $0.000037 and $0.000103 — indecision/distribution pattern
  • Declining volume with elevated price — bearish divergence
  • Intraday spike to $0.000259 (candle 4) failed to hold — rejection at highs
  • Candle 1 shows near-zero volume ($144) — potential exhaustion/liquidity vacuum
  • No higher highs on closes across the 10-candle window — absence of uptrend confirmation

Liquidity

Liquidity

$38,247.24

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Market health is poor. Total liquidity of $38.25K is extremely shallow relative to the 24h trading volume of ~$181.85K — a volume-to-liquidity ratio of ~4.75x, indicating the pool is being heavily traded relative to its depth. This creates significant slippage risk: any position larger than a few hundred dollars will materially move the price. The net flow is strongly negative: 863 unique sellers vs. 381 unique buyers, and sell volume ($135.81K) is 2.95x buy volume ($46.04K). The 24h buy/sell transaction ratio is 1,009 buys vs. 2,091 sells. The token trades on a single PumpSwap pool (FfjvVusmx1BwGL4RVfHJVYGu4J8QtSV3hMvDydbmVFcL), with no other liquidity venues identified. This single-pool dependency amplifies liquidity risk significantly.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

999,998,682.271032

FDV

$238,159.78

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    176.9% 24h price surge followed by erratic OHLC oscillation between $0.000037 and $0.000259. Extreme intraday volatility with no stable price discovery. 5-minute change already -1.84% from current levels.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Only $38.25K total liquidity in a single PumpSwap pool. Volume-to-liquidity ratio of ~4.75x. Any position over a few hundred dollars faces severe slippage. No secondary liquidity venues.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Extreme sell pressure: 74.7% of 24h volume is sells, with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers
  • Shallow liquidity ($38.25K) creates high slippage and exit risk for any meaningful position
  • 96.05% supply concentration in top 100 holders — retail has minimal float
  • Token was dormant for 30+ days before sudden pump — classic pump-and-dump setup
  • Snipers largely in profit and exiting — informed early money is leaving
  • Unverified contract with unknown authority status
  • No utility, roadmap, or substantive project description beyond 'Pixel Coin Eco'
  • Single trading venue (PumpSwap) with no CEX listings

Mitigating factors

  • Token not flagged as spam by data provider
  • Mutable: false suggests metadata is locked
  • Gaming/Mario theme has broad cultural recognition for meme coin narratives
  • Holder count growing rapidly (326 total, +216 in 24h) — some organic interest
  • Social presence on Telegram and Twitter exists
  • 1h price change of +19.6% shows some residual buying interest

Suitable for

This token is suitable ONLY for highly risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. It is NOT suitable for conservative investors, income-seeking investors, or anyone without deep familiarity with micro-cap meme coin dynamics on Solana. Position sizing should be minimal (treat as lottery ticket). No fundamental investment case exists at this time.

Pixel Mario Coin is a high-risk micro-cap meme token on Solana that has experienced a sharp speculative pump (+176.9% in 24h) from a dormant base. The investment case is purely speculative — there is no utility, verified contract, or substantive project. The bull case relies entirely on meme momentum continuation; the bear case (most probable) is a reversion to pre-pump levels as snipers and whales distribute into retail FOMO buyers.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Meme momentum continuation: The Mario gaming theme goes viral on social media, attracting a new wave of retail buyers. Volume sustains above $50K/day, liquidity deepens, and the token achieves a new ATH above $0.000259. FDV could reach $500K–$1M in a sustained meme rally.

  • Viral social media campaign on Twitter/Telegram leveraging Mario gaming nostalgia
  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally lifting all micro-caps
  • New liquidity providers deepening the PumpSwap pool
  • Influencer promotion driving FOMO buying waves
  • Holder count surpassing 1,000+ organically

Base Case

Gradual deflation with high volatility: The token stabilizes in the $0.000050–$0.000130 range as the initial pump fades. Holder count plateaus around 300–400. Occasional volatility spikes occur on low volume. The token neither collapses to zero immediately nor sustains its pump highs, slowly bleeding value over weeks as interest wanes.

  • Some holders maintain positions hoping for a second pump
  • Liquidity remains thin but non-zero on PumpSwap
  • No major new catalyst (positive or negative) emerges
  • Broader Solana market remains relatively stable
  • Social media activity continues at a low level without going viral

Bear Case

High probability

Pump-and-dump collapse: Snipers and whale holders continue distributing into retail buyers. Volume dries up (already declining sharply — candle 1 volume was only $144), liquidity thins further, and price reverts to the pre-pump floor of ~$0.000037 or lower. With 96.05% concentration in top 100 and dominant sell pressure, this is the most structurally supported outcome.

  • Continued sniper profit-taking (16/20 snipers in profit, most with $0 balance remaining)
  • Volume collapse: candle 1 shows only $144 volume vs. $45K+ at peak
  • 74.7% sell pressure with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers
  • No utility or fundamental value to anchor price
  • Shallow $38.25K liquidity amplifies downside moves

Analysis details

Generated

May 17, 10:20 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-05-17 22:20 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • Solana on-chain metadata (mint, decimals, supply, authority)
  • PumpSwap DEX trading data (price, volume, liquidity)
  • Hourly OHLC candle data (10 candles, May 17 2026)
  • Holder metrics and distribution data
  • Historical holder time series (30 days daily)
  • Top 20 holder addresses and balances
  • Sniper analysis (first 1000 blocks, 20 snipers)
  • Trading analytics (buy/sell volume, unique wallets)

Limitations

  • Sniper cost-basis (amount sniped in USD) is unknown for all 20 snipers — PnL percentages are available but absolute values are incomplete
  • Update authority status is 'unknown' — mint and freeze authority renouncement cannot be confirmed
  • Contract is unverified — source code and tokenomics documentation unavailable
  • Only 10 hourly candles provided — insufficient for robust technical analysis (no daily/weekly structure)
  • Holder classification (team, insider, exchange) is inferred from balance patterns, not confirmed on-chain
  • No order book data available — liquidity depth analysis is based on pool TVL only
  • Token has very short active trading history (active ~7 days) — limited historical data for trend analysis

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Investing in micro-cap meme tokens on Solana carries extreme risk of total loss. The analyst has no position in this token. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decision. Past price performance is not indicative of future results.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is Pixel Mario Coin ownership?

Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 326 addresses (2026-05-17 22:20 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.

Are large holders selling Pixel Mario Coin?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is Pixel Mario Coin liquidity falling?

As of 2026-05-17 22:20 UTC, reported liquidity was $38,247.24. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

What is the short-term price outlook for Pixel Mario Coin (Mario)?

The token is showing extreme sell pressure (74.7% sell volume) with only $38.25K in liquidity. The 5-minute price change is already -1.84%, and the OHLC candles show highly erratic oscillation between ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000259. With snipers actively taking profits and dominant sell-side flow, a near-term retracement is the most probable outcome. The current price of $0.000238 is near the upper range of recent candles. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000037 to $0.000260.

Is Mario a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as very high with a risk score of 9.1/100. This token is suitable ONLY for highly risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. It is NOT suitable for conservative investors, income-seeking investors, or anyone without deep familiarity with micro-cap meme coin dynamics on Solana. Position sizing should be minimal (treat as lottery ticket). No fundamental investment case exists at this time.

What are the key risks of holding Mario?

Extreme sell pressure: 74.7% of 24h volume is sells, with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers • Shallow liquidity ($38.25K) creates high slippage and exit risk for any meaningful position • 96.05% supply concentration in top 100 holders — retail has minimal float

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