Mario

Pixel Mario Coin Price Prediction 2026

Mario
Solana•
AI Analysis
Analysis as of May 17, 2026

cexLpyPDpR8bPd7rj4YpJuUEujCgiF5ui83ieTbpump

$0.056198

FDV $6,198

LiveContract:cexLpyPDpR8bPd7rj4YpJuUEujCgiF5ui83ieTbpumpChain:SolanaHolders:202Market cap:$6,198

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Ask Unhosted AI about Mario

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshotas of May 17, 10:20 PM
FDV

$238,160

Liquidity

$38,247

Holders

326

Snipers

31

Risk

Very High

AI Executive Summary

Pixel Mario Coin (Mario) is a meme/novelty token on Solana launched via PumpSwap with a total supply of ~1B tokens and a current FDV of ~$238K. The token has experienced a dramatic 176.9% price surge in the past 24 hours, rising from near-zero to $0.000238. However, this spike is accompanied by severe sell pressure (74.7% of 24h volume is sells), shallow liquidity ($38.25K), extreme holder concentration, and a very young holder base that grew 85% in just 7 days from a base of only 48 holders. The token exhibits classic pump-and-dump risk characteristics and is suitable only for highly risk-tolerant speculators.

Risk: Very High
Sentiment: Bearish
176.9% 24h price surge on PumpSwap with only $38.25K total liquidity
Holder base grew from 48 (stagnant for weeks) to 326 in ~7 days — entirely recent activity
Top 10 holders control 36.9% of supply; top 100 control 96.05%
74.7% of 24h volume is sell-side — dominant distribution pressure
20 snipers identified in first 1000 blocks, majority in profit and actively selling

Price Prediction

bearish

Short term

bearish
1–24 hours

The token is showing extreme sell pressure (74.7% sell volume) with only $38.25K in liquidity. The 5-minute price change is already -1.84%, and the OHLC candles show highly erratic oscillation between ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000259. With snipers actively taking profits and dominant sell-side flow, a near-term retracement is the most probable outcome. The current price of $0.000238 is near the upper range of recent candles.

Target low$0.000037
Target high$0.000260
Support: $0.000089 (candle 9 low), $0.000037 (recurring low across multiple candles)
Resistance: $0.000184 (candle 9 high), $0.000259 (candle 4 high — recent peak)

Medium term

bearish
7–30 days

Without a verified contract, meaningful utility, or sustained buying pressure, the token is unlikely to maintain its current price level. The holder base is extremely young (grew from 48 to 326 in ~7 days), and the 96.05% top-100 concentration leaves little room for organic price discovery. A return toward pre-pump levels (~$0.000037–$0.000090) is the base expectation unless a new catalyst emerges.

Catalysts
  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally
  • Viral social media attention on Mario/gaming theme
  • New exchange listing or partnership announcement
  • Sustained buy-side volume exceeding current sell pressure

Bullish factors

  • 176.9% 24h price surge demonstrates strong speculative momentum
  • Holder count grew 85% in 7 days, showing rapid community formation
  • 1-hour price change of +19.6% suggests short-term buying interest
  • Gaming/Mario theme has broad cultural appeal for meme coin narratives
  • Token is not flagged as spam

Bearish factors

  • 74.7% of 24h volume is sell-side — heavy distribution
  • Only $38.25K total liquidity — extreme slippage risk for any meaningful position
  • Top 100 holders control 96.05% of supply — extreme concentration
  • Holder base was completely stagnant (48 holders) for ~30 days before sudden spike
  • Unverified contract, unknown update authority, mutable metadata status unclear
  • 20 snipers active in first 1000 blocks, most in profit and selling
  • OHLC candles show no stable price discovery — oscillating between $0.000037 and $0.000259
Confidence: low. Confidence is low due to the extreme volatility (176.9% 24h move), very shallow liquidity ($38.25K), erratic OHLC patterns with no clear trend structure, missing sniper cost-basis data, and the token's very short active trading history. Price prediction for micro-cap meme tokens with these characteristics is inherently unreliable.

Deep Analysis

The 10 most recent hourly candles (May 17, 2026, 13:00–22:00 UTC) reveal a highly erratic price structure with no clear directional trend. Open and close values oscillate between two recurring price levels: ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000103, suggesting the market is ping-ponging between a lower support zone and a mid-range level. Candle highs range from $0.000089 (candle 9) to $0.000259 (candle 4), indicating periodic spike attempts that fail to hold. Volume is declining from a peak of ~$45.8K (candle 10) to just $144 (candle 1), signaling rapidly fading interest. The most recent candle (candle 1) shows a very low volume of $144.71, which is a dramatic drop from prior candles — a potential exhaustion signal.

Trend

Short-term
sideways
Medium-term
sideways

Momentum

Status
overbought

Volume

Trenddecreasing
Buy 25%Sell 75%

No sustained uptrend or downtrend is established. Price oscillates between ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000103 on closes, with intraday spikes to $0.000259. The lack of higher highs on closes and the declining volume suggest the initial pump momentum is fading. The medium-term trend is also sideways-to-bearish given the stagnant 30-day holder history prior to the recent spike.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.000103 (recurring close/open level across multiple candles)
Major$0.000037 (recurring low — appears as floor across candles 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10)
Resistance
Immediate$0.000184 (candle 9 high)
Major$0.000259 (candle 4 high — highest recent intraday spike)

The $0.000037 level acts as a strong recurring floor, appearing as the low or open/close in at least 6 of 10 candles. The $0.000103 level is a mid-range pivot. The $0.000259 level represents the recent peak and is the key resistance to watch. A break below $0.000037 would signal capitulation.

Notable patterns

  • Oscillating open/close between $0.000037 and $0.000103 — indecision/distribution pattern
  • Declining volume with elevated price — bearish divergence
  • Intraday spike to $0.000259 (candle 4) failed to hold — rejection at highs
  • Candle 1 shows near-zero volume ($144) — potential exhaustion/liquidity vacuum
  • No higher highs on closes across the 10-candle window — absence of uptrend confirmation

Total holders326
24h Δ+66
7d Δ+85
30d Δ+85
Accelerating Growth
Yes

Correlation with price

Holder growth is strongly correlated with the recent price pump. The token had exactly 48 holders for approximately 30 consecutive days (April 17 – May 10, 2026) with zero net change. Growth began accelerating on May 11–12, then surged dramatically: +35 holders on May 16 alone (+32%), and +216 holders in the past 24 hours (+66%). This explosive growth coincides precisely with the 176.9% price spike, suggesting the holder surge is driven by speculative FOMO rather than organic community building.

The holder trend is technically 'growing' and 'accelerating,' but the context is critical: the token was completely dormant for ~30 days with 48 holders before the recent pump. The 85% 7-day and 30-day growth figures are identical, confirming all growth occurred within the last 7 days. The 24h growth of +216 holders (+66%) is extraordinary but occurred alongside -4 holders in the last hour, suggesting the initial FOMO wave may be peaking. The distribution breakdown shows 99 whales, 28 sharks, 107 dolphins, 42 fish, and 38 octopus — a whale-heavy distribution for only 326 total holders, indicating large-position accumulation by a small number of wallets.

Top 10 hold36.90%
Top 100 hold96.05%
Sentiment
Distributing

Notable holders

FfjvVusmx1BwGL4RVfHJVYGu4J8QtSV3hMvDydbmVFcL

DEX liquidity pool (PumpSwap pair address — matches the trading pair address listed in metadata)

8.07%

7wYuHZbq1Nd8CfPAJqHts79QMBP6VSoCDji8bWdTQdfM

Individual whale — unknown classification, large early accumulator

4.49%

Gak5m5xkrmZC4vhP5RCLRo5x5iyPq6h5sjRviTHQRVrB

Individual whale — unknown classification

4.05%

2ZcWhXUEebDx98bnxdNiDsXCNq7ZioQSUHCi663JR218

Individual whale — unknown classification

3.20%

J8ppSZwBiFoXCJomNCBS7biqiDdtmHQbZnxUUcou6LXn

Individual whale — unknown classification

3.17%

The top 10 holders control 36.9% of supply and the top 100 control 96.05%, leaving only ~3.95% of supply distributed among the remaining holders. This is an extremely concentrated distribution. The #1 holder (8.07%) is the PumpSwap liquidity pool address, which is expected. Holders #2–#10 are unclassified individual wallets holding 4.49% down to 2.56% each. The round-number balances on some holders (e.g., #6 at exactly 30,000,000 and #15 at exactly 20,000,000) may suggest team/insider allocations or structured buys. With 74.7% sell pressure and snipers largely exited, the overall whale sentiment is assessed as distributing. The 96.05% top-100 concentration means retail holders (positions 101–326) collectively hold less than 4% of supply.

Liquidity$38,250
Depth
Shallow
Slippage risk
high

Volume (24h)

Buy$46,040
Sell$135,810
Net flow
outflow

Traders (24h)

Unique buyers381
Unique sellers863

Market health is poor. Total liquidity of $38.25K is extremely shallow relative to the 24h trading volume of ~$181.85K — a volume-to-liquidity ratio of ~4.75x, indicating the pool is being heavily traded relative to its depth. This creates significant slippage risk: any position larger than a few hundred dollars will materially move the price. The net flow is strongly negative: 863 unique sellers vs. 381 unique buyers, and sell volume ($135.81K) is 2.95x buy volume ($46.04K). The 24h buy/sell transaction ratio is 1,009 buys vs. 2,091 sells. The token trades on a single PumpSwap pool (FfjvVusmx1BwGL4RVfHJVYGu4J8QtSV3hMvDydbmVFcL), with no other liquidity venues identified. This single-pool dependency amplifies liquidity risk significantly.

Supply & Valuation

Total supply999,998,682.271032
FDV$238,159.78

Authorities

Mint authority
Active
Freeze authority
Active

The token has a total supply of ~1 billion tokens with 6 decimals, consistent with PumpFun/PumpSwap launch standards. The FDV is $238,159.78 at current prices. The update authority is listed as 'unknown' in the provided metadata, preventing definitive assessment of mint and freeze authority status. The token is marked as 'mutable: false,' which is a positive signal suggesting metadata cannot be changed, but this does not confirm mint/freeze authority renouncement. The contract is unverified and the description ('Pixel Coin Eco') is minimal and uninformative. No tokenomics documentation, vesting schedules, or allocation breakdowns are available. The 'cexLpyPyPDpR8bPd7rj4YpJuUEujCgiF5ui83ieTbpump' mint address suffix 'pump' confirms PumpFun origin. Rug risk from authorities cannot be confirmed as low without explicit renouncement data.

Volatility
high

176.9% 24h price surge followed by erratic OHLC oscillation between $0.000037 and $0.000259. Extreme intraday volatility with no stable price discovery. 5-minute change already -1.84% from current levels.

Liquidity
high

Only $38.25K total liquidity in a single PumpSwap pool. Volume-to-liquidity ratio of ~4.75x. Any position over a few hundred dollars faces severe slippage. No secondary liquidity venues.

Concentration
high

Top 10 holders control 36.9% of supply; top 100 control 96.05%. Excluding the LP pool (#1 at 8.07%), the next 9 holders control ~28.83% of supply. Round-number balances on multiple holders suggest possible insider/team allocations.

SniperDump
high

20 snipers identified in the first 1000 blocks. 16 of 20 are in profit (up to +227.1% PnL). Most show $0 current balance, indicating active selling into the pump. The largest sniper exit was $2,154 at +44% PnL. Continued sniper distribution is a key risk.

Authority
medium

Update authority is 'unknown' — mint and freeze authority status cannot be confirmed as renounced. Token is marked 'mutable: false' which is a partial positive signal. Unverified contract adds additional uncertainty. Risk is medium rather than high due to the 'mutable: false' flag.

Key risks

  • Extreme sell pressure: 74.7% of 24h volume is sells, with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers
  • Shallow liquidity ($38.25K) creates high slippage and exit risk for any meaningful position
  • 96.05% supply concentration in top 100 holders — retail has minimal float
  • Token was dormant for 30+ days before sudden pump — classic pump-and-dump setup
  • Snipers largely in profit and exiting — informed early money is leaving
  • Unverified contract with unknown authority status
  • No utility, roadmap, or substantive project description beyond 'Pixel Coin Eco'
  • Single trading venue (PumpSwap) with no CEX listings

Mitigating factors

  • Token not flagged as spam by data provider
  • Mutable: false suggests metadata is locked
  • Gaming/Mario theme has broad cultural recognition for meme coin narratives
  • Holder count growing rapidly (326 total, +216 in 24h) — some organic interest
  • Social presence on Telegram and Twitter exists
  • 1h price change of +19.6% shows some residual buying interest
Suitable for: This token is suitable ONLY for highly risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. It is NOT suitable for conservative investors, income-seeking investors, or anyone without deep familiarity with micro-cap meme coin dynamics on Solana. Position sizing should be minimal (treat as lottery ticket). No fundamental investment case exists at this time.

Pixel Mario Coin is a high-risk micro-cap meme token on Solana that has experienced a sharp speculative pump (+176.9% in 24h) from a dormant base. The investment case is purely speculative — there is no utility, verified contract, or substantive project. The bull case relies entirely on meme momentum continuation; the bear case (most probable) is a reversion to pre-pump levels as snipers and whales distribute into retail FOMO buyers.

Bull case (low)

Meme momentum continuation: The Mario gaming theme goes viral on social media, attracting a new wave of retail buyers. Volume sustains above $50K/day, liquidity deepens, and the token achieves a new ATH above $0.000259. FDV could reach $500K–$1M in a sustained meme rally.

  • Viral social media campaign on Twitter/Telegram leveraging Mario gaming nostalgia
  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally lifting all micro-caps
  • New liquidity providers deepening the PumpSwap pool
  • Influencer promotion driving FOMO buying waves
  • Holder count surpassing 1,000+ organically

Base case

Gradual deflation with high volatility: The token stabilizes in the $0.000050–$0.000130 range as the initial pump fades. Holder count plateaus around 300–400. Occasional volatility spikes occur on low volume. The token neither collapses to zero immediately nor sustains its pump highs, slowly bleeding value over weeks as interest wanes.

  • Some holders maintain positions hoping for a second pump
  • Liquidity remains thin but non-zero on PumpSwap
  • No major new catalyst (positive or negative) emerges
  • Broader Solana market remains relatively stable
  • Social media activity continues at a low level without going viral

Bear case (high)

Pump-and-dump collapse: Snipers and whale holders continue distributing into retail buyers. Volume dries up (already declining sharply — candle 1 volume was only $144), liquidity thins further, and price reverts to the pre-pump floor of ~$0.000037 or lower. With 96.05% concentration in top 100 and dominant sell pressure, this is the most structurally supported outcome.

  • Continued sniper profit-taking (16/20 snipers in profit, most with $0 balance remaining)
  • Volume collapse: candle 1 shows only $144 volume vs. $45K+ at peak
  • 74.7% sell pressure with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers
  • No utility or fundamental value to anchor price
  • Shallow $38.25K liquidity amplifies downside moves

GeneratedMay 17, 10:20 PM
Data freshnessData reflects on-chain state as of approximately 22:00 UTC on May 17, 2026. OHLC data covers the most recent 10 hourly candles. Holder data reflects the most recent snapshot.
Model confidence
low

Data sources

  • Solana on-chain metadata (mint, decimals, supply, authority)
  • PumpSwap DEX trading data (price, volume, liquidity)
  • Hourly OHLC candle data (10 candles, May 17 2026)
  • Holder metrics and distribution data
  • Historical holder time series (30 days daily)
  • Top 20 holder addresses and balances
  • Sniper analysis (first 1000 blocks, 20 snipers)
  • Trading analytics (buy/sell volume, unique wallets)

Limitations

  • Sniper cost-basis (amount sniped in USD) is unknown for all 20 snipers — PnL percentages are available but absolute values are incomplete
  • Update authority status is 'unknown' — mint and freeze authority renouncement cannot be confirmed
  • Contract is unverified — source code and tokenomics documentation unavailable
  • Only 10 hourly candles provided — insufficient for robust technical analysis (no daily/weekly structure)
  • Holder classification (team, insider, exchange) is inferred from balance patterns, not confirmed on-chain
  • No order book data available — liquidity depth analysis is based on pool TVL only
  • Token has very short active trading history (active ~7 days) — limited historical data for trend analysis

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Investing in micro-cap meme tokens on Solana carries extreme risk of total loss. The analyst has no position in this token. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decision. Past price performance is not indicative of future results.

Token Info

ChainSolana
Contract
Total Supply999,998,682.271032

Key Risks

•Extreme sell pressure: 74.7% of 24h volume is sells, with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers
•Shallow liquidity ($38.25K) creates high slippage and exit risk for any meaningful position
•96.05% supply concentration in top 100 holders — retail has minimal float
•Token was dormant for 30+ days before sudden pump — classic pump-and-dump setup

Smart Money & Sniper Analysis

medium confidence
High risk

Of the 20 identified snipers, the majority show positive realized PnL percentages: 16 out of 20 are in profit (ranging from +4.8% to +227.1%), while only 3 show losses (-16.3%, -10.2%, -0.1%). Most snipers show $0 current balance, indicating they have largely exited their positions. The high sell-through rate among snipers is consistent with the dominant sell pressure observed in 24h trading data (74.7% sell volume). The largest realized sale was $2,154 at +44% PnL. This pattern suggests early buyers have been distributing into the recent price pump.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Sniper details

Sniper concentration2.00%
PnL stateMostly In Profit
Sell-through rateHigh
Profit-taking risk
high

20 snipers identified in first 1000 blocks. Most have $0 remaining balance, indicating high sell-through. The largest single sniper sale was $2,154 (AgmLJBMDCqWynYnQiPCuj9ewsNNsBJXyzoUhD9LJzN51, +44% PnL). Exact sniped supply amounts are unknown, so concentration as % of total supply is estimated at ~2% based on available balance data.

Early buyers (snipers) are predominantly in profit and have largely sold their positions. The high sell-through rate and positive PnL across most snipers indicates the pump has been used as an exit opportunity by informed early participants. Remaining sniper exposure appears minimal.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price prediction for Pixel Mario Coin (Mario)?

The token is showing extreme sell pressure (74.7% sell volume) with only $38.25K in liquidity. The 5-minute price change is already -1.84%, and the OHLC candles show highly erratic oscillation between ~$0.000037 and ~$0.000259. With snipers actively taking profits and dominant sell-side flow, a near-term retracement is the most probable outcome. The current price of $0.000238 is near the upper range of recent candles. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000037 to $0.000260.

Is Mario a safe investment on Solana?

Overall risk is rated very_high with a risk score of 9.1/100. This token is suitable ONLY for highly risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. It is NOT suitable for conservative investors, income-seeking investors, or anyone without deep familiarity with micro-cap meme coin dynamics on Solana. Position sizing should be minimal (treat as lottery ticket). No fundamental investment case exists at this time.

How are Mario holders trending?

Pixel Mario Coin currently has 326 holders and is growing (24h: 66, 7d: 85, 30d: 85). The holder trend is technically 'growing' and 'accelerating,' but the context is critical: the token was completely dormant for ~30 days with 48 holders before the recent pump. The 85% 7-day and 30-day growth figures are identical, confirming all growth occurred within the last 7 days. The 24h growth of +216 holders (+66%) is extraordinary but occurred alongside -4 holders in the last hour, suggesting the initial FOMO wave may be peaking. The distribution breakdown shows 99 whales, 28 sharks, 107 dolphins, 42 fish, and 38 octopus — a whale-heavy distribution for only 326 total holders, indicating large-position accumulation by a small number of wallets.

What does sniper activity look like for Mario?

Snipers hold roughly 2.00% of supply with PnL state "mostly_in_profit" and sell-through rate "high". Profit-taking risk: high.

What are the key risks of holding Mario?

Extreme sell pressure: 74.7% of 24h volume is sells, with 863 sellers vs. 381 buyers • Shallow liquidity ($38.25K) creates high slippage and exit risk for any meaningful position • 96.05% supply concentration in top 100 holders — retail has minimal float

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