🧭 The September Curse: A Recurring Pattern
September historically stands as the worst month of the year for equities, not just in the U.S. but globally. This pattern has been flagged for weeks, and it's playing out as expected. The typical playbook: expect weakness in the first 10 days of September, particularly in tech stocks, followed by a setup for stronger action in October, November, and December — the quarters that traditionally deliver the best earnings and news flow.
For those watching closely, this weakness represents hunting season — an opportunity to position for the year-end rally that often defines Q4 performance.
"September is weak, but I would not go shorting the S&P 500 because this one is tied very closely to global money supply."
📊 Volatility and Market Structure
The VIX has been unusually quiet throughout the summer. Typically, a spike in volatility occurs every six to eight weeks, but that pattern has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, the QQQ continues to show weakness, remaining disjointed from the S&P 500, which continues to grind higher as global liquidity expands.
The S&P 500 itself remains in a clean uptrend with no sell signals, supported by ongoing money printing across multiple jurisdictions. Despite seasonal headwinds, the index is expected to hold firm, driven by its close correlation to global M2 expansion.
₿ Bitcoin: A Shorter, Shallower Bear Market
One of the most striking observations comes from Bitcoin's monthly chart. The previous bear market lasted 427 days, starting December 1st. The most recent downturn, by contrast, lasted only 304 days — a full 123 days shorter — and was notably less steep.
On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin's optimized trend model has flipped blue, signaling a potential shift into a multi-year uptrend. Historically, when this trend turns bullish, it has remained active for approximately 973 days, or nearly three years. If this pattern repeats, the market could be at the very beginning of an extended bull phase.
"If history repeats, we could be at the very beginning of three years of upward action."
As for the bearish case? Some market participants are hoping for a drop to $40,000. From current levels, that would require a decline of approximately 48.44% within the next eight weeks. The probability of such a move is estimated at less than 0.5%.
Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around $78,000 (level four), with no active sell signals. A retest of $74,000–$75,000 is possible, but the underlying trend remains intact. Momentum is largely driven by Bitcoin ETF inflows, with every $1 billion in ETF purchases adding approximately 3% to the price.
🌐 Solana and Ethereum: Breathing Room After Big Runs
Solana surged 40% in August, breaking through the 200-day moving average and hitting resistance around $113. Despite a strong month, the asset endured nine consecutive red monthly candles earlier in the year, making the recent recovery all the more significant.
Ethereum is following a similar pattern, taking a breather after recent gains and encountering resistance at level three. Both assets are waiting for fresh capital inflows and a clear path through September's typical hesitation.
📈 MicroStrategy: A 53% Move in 12 Days
MicroStrategy delivered an explosive 53% rally in just 12 days, pulling the stock out of the $96 range and back into focus. The asset is now consolidating after the rapid move, with founder Michael Saylor continuing to accumulate both Bitcoin and STRC (Strategy's preferred equity product).
STRC remains above $97, offering a ~12.33% annual dividend backed by four years of reserves in cash. The risk lies in price volatility, not dividend security. If the asset crosses $99–$100, additional buying interest is expected to materialize.
🤖 AI and Semiconductors: Nvidia, AMD, and the Rest
Nvidia posted extraordinary earnings, generating over $1 billion per day in revenue and projecting 70% growth over the next year, which would push daily revenue toward $1.7–$2 billion. The stock hit $228 intraday, approaching its all-time high of $236, and is expected to continue grinding higher in a steady upward channel.
AMD remains at the bottom of its range around level five, but the outlook is constructive. Custom chip demand remains strong, and the asset is positioned as a "mini-Nvidia" with significant future upside.
Astera Labs (ALAB) is in a short-term downtrend, with a key support zone at $250. The stock is currently trading around $267, just $17 away from that level. Long-term, the outlook remains bullish, but near-term caution is warranted.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) sold off after earnings guidance failed to meet elevated expectations. The stock has found support around $206, slightly below the anticipated floor of $210 (based on the Google warrant price). Marvell remains a critical player in optical connectivity for data centers, and the long-term thesis is intact.
🚗 Tesla: Robotaxi Launch and Channel Trading
Tesla is preparing for a historic Cybercab launch, scheduled for approximately 2:00 PM Pacific. This marks the first time a dedicated autonomous vehicle will be deployed into the live fleet, with over 2,500 units already built and distributed across the country.
In parallel, Uber announced a 10% workforce reduction to invest in robotaxi infrastructure, while Waymo deployed 250 additional units in Texas. The competitive landscape is shifting rapidly, and Tesla is expected to gain significant market share within 6–12 months.
Tesla's chart shows a sell signal near the top of its recent range, but the asset is trading within a defined channel. Support is expected around $350–$380, with Q3 earnings likely to provide a strong catalyst. Current levels present an attractive entry for patient investors.
🔍 Other Notable Names
- Palantir: After an extended rally that defied expectations, the stock is finally mean-reverting. Resistance was breached at $168–$170, and the stock ran to $187 before pulling back. Support may form around $158 (level five).
- Micron: Completely flatlined — no overbought or oversold signals. The stock is range-bound with no clear directional bias.
- Google: Remains in a downtrend with $320 identified as a key support zone. The stock is currently trading around $313, making it a potential entry point for long-term holders.
⚠️ Risk Management and Portfolio Construction
A core principle emphasized throughout the discussion: focus on the top 0.3% of assets. Rather than chasing second- or third-tier names, concentrate capital in category leaders with clear, defensible moats.
"Pick the spaces you want to invest in. Pick the winner in that category. Done."
This approach reduces unnecessary risk and increases the probability of meaningful returns. In volatile or uncertain environments, quality trumps speculation.
💼 Portfolio Positioning Disclosed
For those curious about recent positioning, the following moves were made during the bear market:
- IBIT (BlackRock Bitcoin ETF) LEAPS: Purchased in February around $36–$38 when Bitcoin hit $64,000.
- BSOL (Bitwise Solana ETF) LEAPS: Added during the same period.
- Solana perpetual contracts: Entered around $64–$68, still holding.
- MicroStrategy LEAPS: Purchased in the $90s after years of waiting for the right entry.
This approach favored leveraged options and ETF-based exposure over self-custody during the recent cycle, a shift from prior strategies.
🧭 Looking Ahead
The next two weeks will be critical. If history holds, a modest dip in early September could set the stage for a strong Q4 rally. The trend structure across Bitcoin, Solana, and major AI names suggests the foundation is in place for a sustained move higher — but patience and discipline remain essential.
As always, rule number one: don't lose money. And rule number two: revisit rule number one.
