🚀 The FOMO Chase: July's Meltdown Reversed in Record Time
The recovery has been nothing short of extraordinary. After one of the worst Julys in the history of AI stocks, approximately 70-75% of the damage was erased within just two days. This violent rebound caught many off guard, but for those tracking technical indicators closely, the setup was textbook.
A week prior, the call was clear: the selloff appeared overblown. Markets were pricing in fears around open-source AI models and broader uncertainty, but the underlying fundamentals—particularly money supply growth and the structural AI transformation—remained intact. That thesis played out precisely as anticipated.
"These markets, by the way, I just want to say something. Literally, if you are a trader, they are glorious. Absolutely incredible. The violent swings that we see and with the models that we have, everything has become pretty darn predictable."
📈 VIX Peaked Exactly as Expected — Then Collapsed
The VIX peaked at 20.66 on July 29th and sold off in textbook fashion. For VIX traders, this was a perfect signal. A strange intraday spike to the 200-day moving average occurred with no clear catalyst, but the overall trajectory confirmed: fear peaked, and markets were ready to rip higher.
💼 S&P 500: Breaking All-Time Highs Like Clockwork
The S&P 500 continues to defy the bears, breaking yet another all-time high this week. The constant refrain from permabears about an impending 1987-style crash remains unfounded. The reality? The S&P 500 is trading at a PE ratio of 20—as cheap as it ever gets. There is no bubble here.
AI is fundamentally changing the earnings landscape, and traditional valuation frameworks are failing to capture this shift. Too much capital is chasing too few hard assets, and that dynamic isn't changing anytime soon.
"Don't be freaked out by the bears. The bears are really suffering right now. They hate AI because they missed the train."
🪙 Bitcoin & Crypto: Sideways Action, But Support Holds
Bitcoin remains range-bound around $64,000, a level it's hovered near since February. This is essentially the $42,000 level of the last cycle—just higher. Strong support sits at $59,000, and the consensus view is that BTC will chop between $62,000-$65,000 until a major catalyst emerges—whether that's renewed ETF inflows or Michael Saylor ramping up purchases.
Ethereum (ETH) is creeping higher after a double buy signal at the $1,500 killbox. It's currently about 8% away from the 200-day moving average at $2,085. Once ETH breaks and holds above that level, history suggests it tends to stay there—potentially propelling the asset toward $3,000-$5,000.
Solana (SOL), the leading L1 by user activity and transaction volume, has been frustratingly flat. It's holding above key support levels, but there's no real catalyst in sight. The 200-day moving average is at $85 and declining as price stagnates.
🏦 Michael Saylor's ATM Strategy: MSTR Stays Flat While BTC Rises
MicroStrategy has been actively ATM-ing (at-the-market equity offerings) since early July, selling stock to raise cash and support confidence in STRC (Saylor's convertible note vehicle). This has kept MSTR's stock price relatively flat even as Bitcoin has shown strength.
The strategy is clear: Saylor is pumping STRC to get it back to $100 so he can restart the Bitcoin buying machine. Once STRC hits that threshold, expect the flywheel to resume—STRC attracts capital, Saylor buys Bitcoin, Bitcoin rallies, and the cycle reinforces itself. For now, the flywheel is paused, but the infrastructure is being rebuilt.
STRC itself has surged to $94, recovering sharply from a low of $72 that raised some concerns just weeks ago.
⚡ NVIDIA: The $5 Trillion Beast Trading at All-Time Low Multiples
NVIDIA reclaimed strong support at $190 exactly as projected and has since ripped higher. The stock closed up 3.43% in a single session—a massive move for a company with a market cap exceeding $5.31 trillion.
Here's the kicker: NVIDIA is trading at an all-time low PE ratio. The company has never been cheaper on a valuation basis, yet revenue and earnings growth remain explosive. Elon Musk's recent comments that SpaceX will continue buying NVIDIA chips (not Tesla's in-house AI5/AI6 chips, which are still in development) only reinforced the bullish thesis.
"Nvidia has never been cheaper. Put that in your pipe and smoke it."
💾 Micron & Marvell: Memory & Infrastructure Plays Firing on All Cylinders
Micron (MU) crashed to the anticipated $739 killbox and immediately rebounded to $920. This was a textbook technical setup—bouncing cleanly off support and surging in two explosive days. The target remains $1,600, and the path looks increasingly clear.
Marvell (MRVL) staged an even more dramatic recovery, bouncing cleanly off the level three support zone and surging 36.7% in just two days. After such a violent move, a consolidation period is natural. The long-term target for Marvell remains $1,000 over the next few years.
🔍 Google vs. Microsoft: Why GOOG is the Better Bet
Microsoft reported solid earnings, prompting some to question whether MSFT is a better AI play than Google. The answer is a firm no. Google offers:
- Better financials and a lower PE ratio
- Faster growth in Google Cloud Platform (GCP) compared to Azure
- Superior product breadth: Search, YouTube, TPUs, and AI integration across Google Workspace
Over the past year, Google has outperformed Microsoft by over 100% in relative terms. Google should be trading at $450, making current levels an attractive entry.
Google did experience unusual volatility after rumors that DeepMind's Demis Hassabis was leaving (he's actually moving to a larger role), along with reports of other AI researchers departing. The stock opened strong but sold off hard intraday, falling from $382 to $355. Despite the noise, the long-term thesis remains intact.
🚗 Tesla: Waiting for the SpaceX Catalyst
Tesla remains range-bound and frustrating for bulls. Support held at $297-$298 as called, and the stock bounced to $327 before pulling back. Retail investors have been selling, while institutional players like Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Cathie Wood have been accumulating aggressively.
The thesis is simple: SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into a single entity, creating the first $100 trillion company. SpaceX had a phenomenal earnings call, and its valuation continues to climb. The unlock event is a near-term risk, but long-term holders are positioning for the integration play.
⚙️ Palantir: Navigating the Unlock Risk
Palantir is hovering around $108 ahead of a significant unlock event. The float will expand to approximately 1.6 times the IPO float after tomorrow's unlock. While some early employees and investors may take profits, the long-term outlook remains bright. The question is whether sell pressure will outweigh buy interest in the near term.
Monitoring taker volume and buy pressure will be critical to determining the next entry point. For now, the strategy is to hold and watch carefully.
🥉 Copper Breaks All-Time Highs in Just One Week
Copper was expected to continue its march higher, but it exceeded expectations by breaking all-time highs within a week. The metal surged to $68,278 in five consecutive up days. The AI buildout, electrification trends, and global infrastructure demand are all driving copper higher. Long-dated call options (LEAPS) remain an attractive way to play this trend.
📊 Broadcom & AMD: Capex Spend Isn't Slowing
Both Broadcom and AMD are benefiting from relentless AI capex spending. AMD saw some volatility around earnings due to higher-than-expected capex, but the stock has recovered and is pushing toward new highs. Broadcom continues to trade in a strong technical range and recently broke out, targeting $500.
"The capex spend for AI is not slowing down. Don't listen to the bears. Follow the money."
🌍 Fiat Currency Stress: Yen & Rupee Cracks Widen
Last week, the Japanese yen required support from the US government. This week, the Indian rupee needed intervention as well. The message is clear: fiat currencies are trending toward zero. When two major currencies experience stress in the same week, the long-term case for Bitcoin and hard assets only strengthens.
🎯 Final Thoughts: Discipline Beats FOMO
July was brutal, but it created exceptional buying opportunities across AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and select crypto assets. Those who bought into weakness—whether it was Micron at $721, Marvell at $164, or Palantir near $106—have been rewarded handsomely.
The broader lesson? Don't be retail. Be different. Retail sells bottoms. Institutions buy them. The violent swings in these markets are creating predictable setups for those with discipline and conviction.
The AI revolution is not slowing. The infrastructure buildout is accelerating. And the best opportunities often emerge during moments of maximum fear.
"It's a good time to be alive."
