📊 Market Overview: When Bulls Run Wild
The S&P 500 continues its relentless march to new all-time highs, hitting 7,539 and leaving bears in shambles. A top expert recently projected the index could reach 8,250 by year-end — another 10% upside from current levels. Since the March 23rd bottom, the S&P 500 has surged 19%, with the QQQ (driven heavily by AI names) posting even stronger gains.
Yet beneath the surface, a historic divergence is unfolding. While AI infrastructure stocks are posting triple-digit gains, crypto markets are bleeding, with Bitcoin down 12% year-to-date and sentiment at multi-month lows. The total crypto market cap has pulled back approximately 46% from its peak, compared to the prior bear market's 74% drawdown. Still, the trend remains constructive, with a double bottom formation in early February followed by steady accumulation — until now.
"The bottom is in when the last optimist leaves the room. The sentiment right now for Bitcoin and crypto is totally in the toilet. Everybody is losing their minds. Everybody's giving up the ghost. And sometimes that's actually a bullish sign."
🪙 Crypto Under Pressure: Death by a Thousand Cuts
Bitcoin has slipped below its 50-day moving average after repeatedly banging its head against the 200-day moving average. Traders continue to sell at resistance, believing the bear market remains intact. Compression between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is tightening, raising chatter about potential death crosses. Without renewed ETF inflows or another Michael Saylor buying spree, retail appears tapped out.
Ethereum sentiment is even worse. A clear sell signal materialized at $2,300 last week, followed by a swift selloff. The narrative that retail is rotating from crypto into AI stocks continues to circulate, though much of that rotation likely occurred months ago.
Solana remains range-bound, repeatedly bouncing off the $80–$82 support zone. The asset tested this level multiple times in recent days, hitting $82.70 on Tuesday and $82.80 again more recently. For swing traders, this level remains the key entry point, with confluence at level one on the ATR indicator.
HYPE and Zcash both printed new highs before rolling over with clear sell signals. HYPE shot to $65 before pulling back sharply — a textbook case of chasing the pump at the wrong time. Zcash continues to get rejected at $680 like clockwork, offering consistent perp short opportunities.
🤖 AI Infrastructure: The Triple-Digit Rally That Won't Quit
If crypto is the forgotten trade, AI infrastructure is the market's golden child. Year-to-date performance reads like a fantasy:
- Micron (MU): Up 200% YTD and over 1,000% in the past year
- STMicroelectronics: Up 150%
- Marvell (MRVL): Up 122%
- Applied Materials (ALAB): Up 81%
The volatility is extreme, but the direction is unmistakable. These names have been in constant accumulation, with buyers stepping in on every meaningful dip.
💥 Micron's Vertical Ascent: A Case Study in LEAP Power
Micron delivered one of the most violent rallies in recent memory, surging from $191 to $241 in roughly 27 hours following an earnings beat and UBS upgrade with a $1,650 price target. The stock now trades around $931, up over $619 in just 40 trading days.
For those holding LEAP options purchased earlier this year at a base price near $40, the underlying stock's $240 move translated into over 5x returns on the original investment — showcasing the asymmetric power of well-timed options plays in a raging bull market.
"When you put down 30 or 40 bucks on a LEAP and it goes up $240 in 27 hours or $620 in 58 days, it's insane."
Despite the parabolic move, Micron is projected to trade at a forward P/E of just seven based on next year's earnings — a valuation that defies the chart's vertical trajectory. Still, after such a move, caution is warranted. The juice has been squeezed, and chasing here is a dangerous game.
🚀 Marvell, ALAB, AMD: The Momentum Train Keeps Rolling
Marvell (MRVL) continues its ascent with no meaningful dips. From $175 on May 20th to $208 today, the stock added another $30 in steady continuation. After hours, Marvell surged an additional $18.40 following earnings, though the revenue beat was modest (actual: $2.42B vs. expected: $2.41B). The market's enthusiasm appears driven by forward guidance rather than the headline numbers.
Applied Materials (ALAB) tripled in six weeks and shows no signs of fatigue. The optimized trend remains thick and strong, with no quit in sight. Demand for AI infrastructure, particularly high-bandwidth memory, remains off the hook.
AMD broke $500 for the first time ever this week after a sharp recovery from a selloff to $390. The stock remains a beast, though caution is creeping in. Mean reversion indicators suggest the asset may be approaching overbought territory, but as long as AI momentum persists, dips remain shallow.
🟢 NVIDIA: Consolidation or Distribution?
NVIDIA sold off after earnings and is now testing a key support level around $195–$200. The stock broke through resistance before earnings but has since fallen back below it. The trend is down on the daily chart, with sell signals flashing and no buy confirmation yet.
On the 4-hour chart, the trend turned down around $204, bottomed near $195, and turned sharply at $200 before rallying. For swing traders, the typical rampage cycle lasts 15–25 days, offering clear time frames for positioning.
The question now: will NVIDIA consolidate in this range, or is this the beginning of a deeper correction? Until the trend confirms a reversal, the prudent play is to wait on the sidelines.
🛰️ SpaceX IPO Hype: Proxies Heat Up
With the SpaceX IPO rumored for June 12th, proxy stocks are beginning to stir. EchoStar (SATS), despite being weak recently, is expected to rally back to $130–$140 in the next 10 trading days as anticipation builds. The asset is currently hated, which often precedes a sharp reversal.
Neptune Wellness (NEPT), a holding with roughly 32–33% SpaceX exposure, is similarly beaten down. If SpaceX hype intensifies and investors hunt for proxies, Neptune could rally back to $0.90 or even $1.00. However, the stock's Bitcoin and Solana holdings are a drag on performance.
"This will rocket to $130 to $140 in the next 10 trading days. Boom. There you go. Written down. Forever memorialized on the interwebs."
An updated SpaceX 2030 price prediction model was released overnight, highlighting the transformational potential of the company. The real value isn't in Starship or satellite communications — it's something entirely different, and the market is only beginning to understand.
⚡ Bitcoin Miners: The Unexpected Winners
While Bitcoin languishes, Bitcoin miners are surging on AI energy and infrastructure tailwinds. Riot Platforms (RIOT) was flagged last week with 8% upside to $25 — it now trades at $27. HIVE Blockchain has rocketed from $1.24 a year ago to $4.46 today. CleanSpark, Marathon Digital, and Iris Energy are all posting strong gains, buoyed by the AI energy narrative rather than Bitcoin's price action.
These assets are proving that in a market obsessed with AI infrastructure, even crypto-adjacent plays can ride the wave — as long as they have an AI angle.
🔋 Tesla: The $2,000 Thesis
Tesla continues its steady accumulation, trading around $441 and sitting 12% below all-time highs. The stock has been in a clear upward channel with consistent buy and sell signals along the way. For those building positions, any dip back toward $400 or below remains a high-conviction entry point.
The long-term thesis remains intact: Tesla is heading to $2,000 by 2030, if not sooner. For younger investors with time on their side, dollar-cost averaging into Tesla on dips is a disciplined strategy for wealth accumulation.
"If you see it close to $400, under $400, I hope we get another dip back there again. But if you do, look at the simple array of lines — it does have big mean reversion."
🧭 Market Outlook: Proceed with Caution
The AI rally has been spectacular, but it's also raised eyebrows. The market is surging during a war, with weak macro conditions and elevated interest rates. If peace is achieved, rates are cut, and money printing resumes, these stocks could rip even harder. But the flip side is also true: August and September are historically weak months, and after such a run, risk management becomes critical.
For now, the playbook is clear:
- Don't chase. The best trades were made on dips months ago.
- Harvest profits. Build cash reserves to at least 7% of portfolio value.
- Wait for setups. Sell signals are flashing across multiple assets. Patience will be rewarded.
- Stay hedged. Volatility is coming. Protect gains.
🎯 Final Thoughts
The divergence between AI and crypto is one for the history books. AI infrastructure stocks are in escape velocity mode, while crypto sentiment is in the gutter. Yet historically, that's when opportunities are born. Crypto may be hated now, but when the tide turns — and it will — the move could be explosive.
For AI, the rally is mature but not finished. Caution is warranted, but so is respect for the trend. The revolution is real, and the companies building the infrastructure are printing money.
As always, trade what you see, not what you think. The charts don't lie.
See you next week.
