Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #33

👀 Last week in Crypto

🔥 Bitcoin is back at $110K.

😱 Metaplanet’s market cap has surged 340x since adopting the Bitcoin standard back in April 2024. Turns out going full degen pays off.

🥵 Aave just hit a new all-time high in USDT deployment—over $3.5 billion in play. DeFi’s still cooking.

🫠 Crypto Twitter’s latest main character?

Trader James Wynn. After making headlines with a legendary $1.2B BTC long, he just torched $60M on a public short. Still up $12M overall, but the rollercoaster’s real.

🧊 Circle just printed another 250M USDC - bringing their monthly mint spree to $1.5B. Stablecoin season is in full swing.

😅 The easiest way to spot the market cycle? Just listen to what your friends are saying.

🔥 Bitcoin back above $110 k • Macro head-fakes • Why the “tariff dumps” are buy-the-dip events

1. Bitcoin’s posture: higher-highs resume

Time-frame	Level to watch	Comment
Weekly	$94 k (50-week MA)	Last two weeks printed the highest weekly closes in BTC history. Trend intact until we close < $94 k.
Daily	$109 k	Friday’s “tariff dump” retraced; we’re pressing into fresh highs. A daily close above $109 k opens $120–125 k.

The new Money-Line v2 agrees: momentum flips bearish only below $92-94 k. Until then, every dip is statistically a buy.

2. Macro noise ≠ Macro trend

Macro driver	What happened	Net effect for BTC
Tariff headlines	Friday: Trump threatens 50 % EU tariff → risk dump. Monday: tariffs “paused” → risk bounce.	Short-term volatility; long-term irrelevant.
M2 supply vs. BTC	We’re still below the 1-to-1 regression line.	Catch-up implies ~40 % upside without fresh liquidity.
Fed balance-sheet	QT has stalled; insiders see stealth buying in long bonds as yields spike.	Any formal QE restart is rocket fuel.

Remember: the last 18-month rally happened under tightening. Imagine the asymmetry once easing begins.

3. Who’s buying? - The corporate & fund bid accelerates

Player	Latest move
Jack Mallers’ 21Co	Raising to buy 1 million BTC (≈ 5 % of supply).
MetaPlanet (Japan)	+1,040 BTC last week; treasury ≈ $1 bn.
DeFi Development Corp	10× stock-price since pivot to SOL treasury; now co-running a BONK validator.

Math: 9 % of Bitcoin migrated from retail to ETFs/treasuries in 14 months → price +259 %.
A further 5 % shift = +140 % (all else equal).

4. Alt-coin rotation – the leaders so far

Pair	Status	Read-through
SUI / SOL	Range-bound since January, but SUI threatens a breakout.	Keep both on; watch 5 US$ for blue-sky.
HYPER / SOL & SUI	Fresh weekly breakouts.	Decentralised-perp volume + narrative = outperformance.
SOL / BTC	Still below bullish Money-Line (needs > $188).	Opportunity: SOL hasn’t “sparked” yet this leg.

Meme note: FartCoin (FART) continues to grind into all-time-highs. The market loves transparent, VC-free tokenomics—even when the ticker is a joke.

5. DeFi infra to watch

Hyperliquid – on-chain perps hitting > $250 m daily.Solana Attestation Service – open-source identity primitives (re-usable KYC, tokenised equities).Arbitrum + Base upgrades – Coinbase’s L2 slashing confirmation times to challenge Solana UX.Theta – FC Seoul partnership; looking for first meaningful price response.

6. Trading tactics for the week

Core positioningStay long BTC above $94 k weekly.Accumulate SOL on sub-$180 dips (anticipating Money-Line flip).Event-driven hedgesTrump-tweet sell-offs: use tight stop-grids or DCA bots (e.g. Pionex futures grid) instead of manual panic.Pairs & themesLong BTC / Short long-bond ETFs (TLT) until yields capped.Rotational play: SUI-strength vs. SOL; monitor Hyperliquid momentum.Risk managementTrump tariffs = hours-to-days volatility, not trend-enders. Size positions, set stops, sleep easy.Keep 50 %+ long-term stack in cold storage—France’s Telegram censorship push is your reminder.

7. Big-picture conviction

Bitcoin rallied from $42 k → $110 k during QT.
Now:

Interest-rate cuts loom.Fed balance sheet has quietly stopped shrinking.Retail supply keeps transferring to “diamond-hand” treasuries.Gen-Z wealth flows natively to self-custody assets.

A 2–3× in the next 6–12 months is the base-case. Anything less will require a macro shock bigger than 2020—and even that only paused the up-trend for weeks.

Stay nimble on headlines, stay bullish on mathematics. See you on-chain.