Trade idea: Scale in from $112K down to $110K. Stop: < $108K daily close. Target: $138K–$150K.
2. Macro Tailwind: The $18B-Per-Day Printer 🖨️
Trump’s fiscal plan = ~$18–20B daily Treasury issuance.
Expanding M2 = more liquidity chasing scarce assetsBTC historically lags M2 by ~3 months
Play: Keep ≥50% of crypto stack in BTC until M2 slope turns down 2 months straight.
3. Sentiment Check: PTSD Everywhere
Fear index ≈ 47 (not euphoric, far from cycle top)CT screaming “bear market” = actually bullish contrarianVeterans panicking while new retail isn’t even here yet
Translation: Tops form on euphoria. We’re nowhere near.
4. September FUD ≠ End of Cycle
Historically September = weak for BTCBut this is the final phase of the 4-year cycle → silly seasonBob Lucas: best rallies come when most are skeptical
So while mid-curvers hedge themselves to death, dumb bulls (buy every dip) will likely win this phase.
5. Whale Watch 🐋
MicroStrategy keeps refinancing to stack satsMetaPlanet (Japan’s “mini-Sailor”) adding dipsGrant Cardone shook by his first Sunday dump — welcome to Bitcoin, Grant
Playbook Cheat-Sheet
Swing (3–8 wks): Long BTC from $110K → $150K, stop $108K Position (2–6 mths): Hold ≥50% BTC core, rotate later into ETH/SOL Event-driven: Watch MSTR raises — failed convert = warning sign Macro hedge: Cash up only when M2 slope flips negative
Bottom Line
Ignore the noise. BTC’s “boring” retest is fuel, not failure. $150K is still on the table — size smart, automate exits, and clean your wallet approvals before the next leg up. 🚀
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