Bias: Neutral → cautious until BTC reclaims $118k and ETH reclaims $4,350–4,450 with momentum.BTC levels: Support $112k → $110k → $100k. Resistance $117–118k → $120–121k → $128k.ETH levels: Support $4,200 → $4,000 → $3,950–3,800. Resistance $4,350 → $4,450–4,480 → $4,600–4,800.Positioning: Leverage flushed; funding/froth cooled. Expect whipsaws; trade the levels, not the headlines.Strategy: Scale in at supports with tight invalidations; fade first test of resistance; keep hedges/live stops into data & Fed speak.
What Just Happened (digestible drivers)
Macro wobble: Hotter inflation prints and tougher rate-cut odds hit risk assets. Liquidity expectations cooled → crypto corrected.Profit-taking: After the run-up, spot ETF flows/whales took chips off the table. Overhang created at recent highs.Leverage washout: Long liquidations accelerated selling; OI/funding reset = cleaner field but near-term choppy tape.Tech fatigue: BTC failed above ~120–124k; ETH rejected sub-4.5k. Broken short-term structures now act as resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC) — Tactical Map
Structure right now: Post-dump range between $112k–$118k; air-pocket below $116k still sticky.
Supports to buy (with tight risk):$112k (polarity level). Invalidation: sustained < $111.5k.$110k (edge of low-liquidity gap). Invalidation: clean 4h close below.$100k (psychological; last-ditch higher-timeframe support).
Resistances to sell/fade:$117–118k (recent breakdown area + short-term MA cluster).$120–121k (range high / fib confluence).$128k+ (only on strong momentum reclaim).Actionable setups:Range trade: Buy $112k–$110k, stop 0.8–1.2% below, first take-profit $117–118k, leave a runner for $120–121k.Break-retest-go: Long only on 4h/daily close > $118k, retest holds → target $120–121k, then $128k.If $112k fails: Stand down; look for absorption near $110k or capitulation wick toward $100–105k for a reaction long.
Ethereum (ETH) — Tactical Map
Structure right now: Key line in the sand is $4,200; losing it opens $4,000 quickly.
Supports to buy (with tight risk):$4,200 (liquidity cluster). Invalidation: clean daily close below.$4,000 (round number + prior demand).$3,950–3,800 (HTF demand / MA stack).
Resistances to sell/fade:$4,350 (20-day EMA/VWAP region).$4,450–4,480 (recent swing high supply).$4,600–4,800 (momentum extension only).Actionable setups:Defense of $4,200: Probe long with 1–1.5% stop; take profit into $4,350, keep runner to $4,450.Squeeze trigger: 4h/daily close > $4,450 → shorts can unwind quickly; target $4,600–4,800; trail stops tight.If $4,200 breaks: Don’t knife-catch; wait for 1) reclaim of $4,200 or 2) reaction long at $4,000 / 3,950–3,800.
Derivatives & Sentiment Snapshot (what to do with it)
Funding: Normalized/turned negative in spots → less froth, easier for bounces to stick.
Open Interest: Down from highs → cleaner tape; but also less fuel unless fresh longs arrive.
Greed/Fear: Off euphoric highs → neutral/greed. Not capitulation, but better than peak greed.
Catalyst calendar: Track inflation, jobs, and any Fed speak. Into events: trim leverage, hedge, or lighten.Validation signals for risk-on:BTC daily close > $118kand ETH > $4,350 (ideally both).Funding stays flat-to-negative while price grinds up = constructive.Exchange outflows persist; whale accumulation on dips.Risk triggers to respect:BTC < $112k daily close or ETH < $4,200 daily close → tighten risk, expect lower supports to test.Liquidity vacuums (fast moves through $116–112k BTC / $4.3–4.2k ETH) → don’t fight the tape; wait for wicks/absorption.
Bottom Line
The dump cleaned up leverage but didn’t break the higher-timeframe bull trend.Until BTC > $118k and ETH > $4,350–4,450, assume chop and play the range.Keep positions smaller, stops tighter, and let levels (not opinions) lead your next trade.
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