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Bitcoin’s “Boring” Retest Is Just What a 150 K Break-Out Needs
How to convert the current wobble into a high-conviction playbook for the next leg up.
TL;DR — The Trade in One Screen-Grab
What’s happening now
Why it matters
Actionable move
BTC retesting 110 K-118 K (prior neckline / inverse H&S)
Text-book “previous resistance ➜ new support.”
Ladder bids from 112 K-110 K. Size for core swing (weeks), not intraday.
CME gap from July just closed
Gaps act as magnets; once filled, price often resumes trend.
Treat 110 K as invalid-if-lost. Hard stop below 108 K daily close.
$18-20 B/day of new U.S. debt (Trump fiscal push)
Expanding M2 = more liquidity chasing scarce assets.
Maintain ≥ 50 % of crypto stack in BTC until money-supply slope turns down.
Fear & PTSD all over CT
No new retail = cycle not topped.
Accumulate while “veterans” panic; unload when Uber driver asks about NFTs.
1 The Retest No One Wanted—But Bulls Needed
Bitcoin ripped out of a 5-month inverse head-and-shoulders, tagged 118 K, then bled to the exact breakout line. That’s constructive, not bearish:
Liquidity check: shake weak hands, reload whale bids.Technical confirmation: trend resumption odds jump once the level holds 2–3 daily closes.
Trade idea: Stagger entries every $1 000 from 112 K-110 K; ⅓ position size each. Stop daily close < 108 K. Initial TP 138 K; stretch TP 150 K.
2 Macro Tail-Wind: The $18 B-Per-Day Printer
Trump’s fiscal package implies ~$18–20 B of net new Treasuries every day through mid-2025.90-day-lagged M2 continues to rise; BTC historically lags that curve by ~3 months.
Bitcoin will catch up with M2 bringing its price to 150k, If it follows it to a T, excpect a correction/hesitation in October.
Grid-Bot Hack After a red week, redeploy fresh grids (Bonk, Fart, COOKIE) at lower bands. They buy the dip with leverage while you sleep—but always watch liquidation distance.
4 Why Solana Metrics Still Matter
Active addresses up 7× YoY (from 10 M → 70 M)Throughput target: double every two years per Moore’s-Law mandate.
If SOL keeps absorbing new use-cases (DePIN, true-on-chain order books) while ETH soaks up TradFi, you want exposure to both.
Stack strategy:
Add SOL on sub-$160 wicks.
Restake via Jito / Marinade; airdrop season isn’t over.
Keep ETH in liquid-staking derivatives (LS-ETH) to capture yield while spot grinds.
MicroStrategy keeps refinancing to buy.MetaPlanet (Japan’s “micro-micro-strategy”) used Friday’s dip to add.
Marker to watch ➜ failed capital raises. When Sailor stops being able to sell converts, liquidity may be drying.
6 CME Gaps & Sentiment Gauges
November ’23 CME gap closed → +70 % rally followed.July ’25 gap now closed.Twitter sentiment index (0-100): sitting at 38—fearful, not euphoric.
Translation No blow-off yet. Blow-offs end cycles; fear rarely does.
7 Security PSA—Revoke Old Approvals
A year-old phishing approval just drained a whale. If you use Metamask or any EVM wallet:
Visit revoke.cashClear stale token approvalsHardware-sign large transfers
Five minutes; saves a portfolio.
8 Playbook Cheat-Sheet
Time-Frame
Trigger
Trade
Risk Control
Swing (3-8 wks)
Daily close 110-112 K support
Long BTC → 138 K/150 K
Hard stop 108 K close
Position (2-6 mths)
ETH/BTC weekly > 0.06
Rotate 15-25 % BTC → ETH
Hedge w/ 0.05 puts
Event-Driven
MSTR convert fails / auction weak
De-risk ⅓ alt book to cash
N/A
Macro Hedge
M2 2-month slope turns down
Raise cash to 40 %
Tight trailing on winners
Bottom Line
Ignore the PTSD chatter. A vanilla breakout-retest is setting the stage for a thrust toward 145-150 K. Size rationally, automate exits, and double-check those old token approvals—so you can enjoy the next leg up instead of fighting your own wallet.
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